Wednesday, February 17, 2010

I've Moved My Blog To New Address!

Hello dear readers,

Just want to notice you that I have moved my Juicy Forex Singals blog to FOREX DAILY COMMENTARY

Here are two reasons:
1. I think that everyone have to trade according it's own singals, because nobody can be sure what next will happened in the market. Maybe my signals are good for me, but I do not know what is your stile of trade, your money management etc, so I can not be sure that my signals will work well for you.

2. Due to timezone where I am, sometimes it is hard for me to publish Forex Signals before starts of London season.

I will continue to share with you my ideas through comments on several currencies every day. Hope that will be useful for all of you, so please take a look on new blog FOREX DAILY COMMENTARY and do not forget to subscribe for RSS FEEDS.

Wish you many Green Pips! :)


Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Daily Forex Commentary

Majors: Japanese economic growth data beat expectations of an increase in year to date GDP to around 3.5% coming in at a whopping 4.6% during Q4 2009. The weak Yen helped exports and with improvements in global demand mainly led by China also playing a big role growth in the region beat economist forecasts. Despite the positive news the JPY weakened against the USD trading to 90.20 in Asian trade as many analysts expect the rise in GDP to be relatively short lived. With little in the way of offshore economic data for direction overnight it emerged that the Greece finance ministry had entered into interest rate swaps as a means to defer interest payments by several years, a common practice however one that cast some doubt as to the true debt burden. The news hit risk appetite with EUR/USD trading to a low of 1.3580 on two occasions, down from its overnight peak around 1.3635. With the U.S scheduled back from a long weekend this evening and more comments from EU officials likely to emerge the volatility is expected to increase once again as EUR/USD continues to edge closer to 1.35.

Australian Dollar

Australian Dollar: In what was a very lacklustre Asian session yesterday the Aussie dollar traded sideways between 0.8860 and 0.8880 for the majority of the day as local investors searched for inspiration. After an initial dip to 0.8850 during early European trade the AUD/USD then bounced back to retest the 89 cent handle and opens this morning just shy of the mark at 0.8890. With the U.S enjoying the President’s Day holiday it was a quiet session in North America however the release of the RBA board minutes for the recent meeting where rates were left on hold and a talk by RBA assistant governor Debelle are likely to spark the Aussie dollar into action today.

- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8850 to 0.8925

Great Britain Pound

Great Britain Pound: The Pound traded between 1.5640 and 1.5680 in Asia yesterday and started offshore trading at an intraday low of 1.5610 USD amid fears that the UK mortgage market may again come under financial pressures. Moody’s had assessed that British banks may struggle to refinance 319 billion pounds of mortgaged backed bonds as the Government prepares to wind down its Special Liquidity Scheme and Credit Guarantee Scheme. However the GBP gained 0.7% upon news that housing prices had increased 3.2% as the Sterling rallied back up to 1.5690 before hitting a high of around 1.5720 near the start of US trade. During holiday thinned US trade the Pound edged lower starting today at 1.5660 against the Greenback and 2.2450 versus the Kiwi.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.2385 to 2.2500

New Zealand Dollar

New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi gained just over 0.5% against the USD during offshore trade peaking at 0.6988. New Zealand’s Performance Services index, though not as high as last month’s 54.4, was still in the green at 53.1 for January. Investor enthusiasm dampened during the US session and the Kiwi fell amid concerns over sovereign debt problems which continue to plague Greece and other European nations sapped the market’s appetite for higher yielding assets. The Kiwi opens higher at 0.6975 USD head of positive expectations for today’s PPI figures.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6950 to 0.7015

Monday, February 15, 2010

Candlestick Summary - EUR/USD

We initially sold EURUSD at 1.4881. Prices are have stalled near our fourth revised profit target, finding support at the bottom of a falling channel established from the swing high in early December. Positive RSI divergence hints that an upswing to the channel top just above the 1.40 level is likely from here. We see this as corrective and will remain short, revising our profit target slightly lower to 1.3651 with a close below that level signaling the next leg of the down move. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.4251.

Elliott Wave Bias - Gold

The next major support for Gold is not until 1005 (former breakout level).  Even then, I expect that level to be taken out without much of a fight as the deflationary environment has returned with a vengeance.  Gold has reached resistance from Fibonacci (and former support), which extends to 1094.  The retracement is satisfactory; favor the downside.

Elliott Wave Bias - OIL

Crude is in a 3rd of a 3rd wave decline from 7804.  Although the rally from the low extended, the final leg of the advance is in 3 waves; which favors a complex corrective labeling.  Medium term targets (several weeks) are 6600 (100% extension) and 6426 (July low).

Elliott Wave Bias - NZD/USD

The NZDUSD has found resistance at the confluence of the 61.8% retracement / short term trendline.  The rally from 6804 is in 3 waves (corrective…looks like a double 3), which leaves the NZDUSD vulnerable.  The next major support for the NZDUSD is not until 6600.  A Fibonacci confluence at 6365-6465 serves as a bearish objective.


Elliott Wave Bias - AUD/USD

After breaking below the December low, the AUDUSD has found strong support from the confluence of the 200 day SMA / channel support.  A break of this area is required to inspire confidence in the bearish bias (against 8935).  If the decline from 9055 is a 3rd wave, then the decline should extend to at least 8400, which is the 161.8% extension of wave 1.