Free signal EUR/USD, 15 Februar 2010

Symbol:
EURUSD
Forecast High:
1.3771
Forecast Low:
1.3457
Entry Buy:
1.3626
T/P Buy:
1.3673
S/L Buy:
1.3576

EUR/USD: Threats To Downside With Eyes On 1.3584/30 Levels

EURUSD: The pair may have closed the week almost flat and printing a hammer candle on the daily chart but while it holds below its Feb 09’10 high/Feb 01’10 low at 1.3838/51 and the 1.4025/28 levels, its Jan 21’10 low/Feb 03’10 high, we see risk to the downside. With that said, the pair retains its broader weakness activated from its 2009 high at 1.5143 and should push towards the 1.3584/30 levels where a break will clear the way for the resumption of its medium term downtrend towards its .61 Fib Ret/May 18’09 low at 1.3422/09 and then its Jun 03’09 low at 1.3211.Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. However, the immediate risk to our analysis will be its Friday hammer print triggering a corrective recovery higher which should target its Feb 10’10 level at 1.3675 at first with a cut through there exposing its Feb 09’10 high/Feb 01’10 low at 1.3838/51. We expect a reversal of roles at this key resistance zone capping further upside gains and turning the pair back down again. Above the latter level if seen will bring the 1.4025/28 levels, its Jan 21’10 low/Feb 03’10 high into focus.

Weekly Chart: EURUSD

EUR/USD: Weak Tone With Eyes On 1.3584/30 Levels

EUR/USD: The pair remains firmly biased to the downside short and medium terms as it continues to target lower prices following its rejection of corrective high at 1.3838 level the past week. As referenced in our past reports, we have our eyes on the downside while EUR trades and holds below its Feb 09’10 high/Feb 01’10 low at 1.3838/51 and the 1.4025/28 levels, its Jan 21’10 low/Feb 03’10 high. Despite its Friday print of a hammer candle (bottom reversal signal) and an almost flat weekly close, the pair retains its broader weakness activated from its 2009 high at 1.5143. In that case, below the 1.3584/30 levels will clear the way for the resumption of its medium term downtrend towards its .61 Fib Ret/May 18’09 low at 1.3422/09 and then its Jun 03’09 low at 1.3211.Its higher level chart studies are bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. However, the immediate risk to our analysis will be its Friday hammer print triggering a corrective recovery higher which could target its Feb 10’10 level at 1.3675 with a cut through there exposing its Feb 09’10 high/Feb 01’10 low at 1.3838/51. We expect a reversal of roles at these key resistance area capping further upside gains and turning the pair back down again, which is consistent with its broader medium term bearishness. Above the latter level if seen will bring the 1.4025/28 levels, its Jan 21’10 low/Feb 03’10 high into focus. On the whole, EUR continues to retain its medium term bearish structure as it looks to weaken further below the 1.3584/30 levels.

EUR/USD - Long Term Market Analysis

EURUSD remains in downtrend from 1.4579. As long as 1.3838 resistance holds, downtrend could be expected to continue and deeper decline to 1.3400 area to reach next cycle bottom on daily chart is possible next week. However, next cycle bottom is nearing, a break above 1.3838 key resistance will confirm that a cycle bottom has been formed and the fall from 1.4579 has completed.

For long term analysis, EURUSD has formed a cycle top at 1.5144 level on weekly chart. Fall towards 1.3000 area to reach next cycle bottom is expected in next several weeks.

EUR/USD - USD/JPY - GBP/USD

Free signal EUR/USD

 

Symbol: 

EURUSD

Forecast High: 

1.3896

Forecast Low: 

1.3492

Entry Buy: 

1.3700

T/P Buy: 

1.3772

S/L Buy: 

1.3650

DAILY ANALYSIS FOR EUR/USD

Resistance:	1.3697,	1.3736-66,	1.3799,	1.3838-83
Support:	1.3650,	1.3618	1.3585,	1.3548

Bias: The 1.3697-05 resistance is the key pivotal point here - if this breaks expect a strong rally - else look for new lows. Please read the attached PDF file which provides more detailed analysis

Daily Bullish

While the rush back down to 1.3595 has potential to extend losses I am not so certain. There is support at 1.3650-55 and if the 1.3697-05 resistance breaks expect a sustained rally. This should quickly rally back above 1.3436-66 and 1.3799 and back to around the 1.3838 high. This may well provide a temporary stalling point but overall, depending on how quickly this develops I will be looking for extension to 1.3883 at least. The next larger targets are at 1.3945 and 1.4004.

Medium Term Bullish 8th February:    While medium term momentum looks so bearish I'd rather hold off from a bullish stance until the 124.60-92, 125.81 and 126.69 resistance levels are broken.

Daily Bearish

The upside failure almost looks certain to follow-through below 1.3585 but I would recommend waiting. Until the 1.3585-95 lows break there is still a question mark over this decline. If seen then look for extension to 1.3517. Cautiously I feel this will hold for a correction higher. While it remains below the 1.3580-00 resistance then look for eventual extension to the 1.3433 area minimum and on a strong extension to 1.3398.

Medium Term Bearish 12th February:   While the 1.3866-83 area can cap we cannot ignore the bearish threat. From this area a move back lower could easily retest the 1.3585 low and then extend to the original target at 1.3433-70 and possibly 1.3398. However, this now looks a stronger support for a larger reversal.

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD

Range Forecast
1.3670 / 1.3695

Resistance/Support
R: 1.3695/1.3726/1.3746
S: 1.3643/1.3621/1.3595

Free signal EUR/USD

 

Symbol: 

EURUSD

Forecast High: 

1.3867

Forecast Low: 

1.3610

Entry Buy: 

1.3799

T/P Buy: 

1.3822

S/L Buy: 

1.3749

Forex Daily Analysis

AUDUSD - Resistance level is broken, look for buying opportunities above this barrier.

EURUSD - Resistance level still holds bulls from further recovery, waiting action remains.

EURGBP - Despite the recent breakout, bulls are not confident enough to overcome bears side. Waiting action holds with buying possibilities

NZDUSD -It looks like bulls are looking forward for a major trend reversal point above resistance barrier. In order to confirm bulls strength, waiting action is valid now.

EUR/USD - Daily technical outlook

Trading strategy: stand aside

Yesterday’s trading sessions have been mixed – euro falling after a failed attempt to breach above 1.3800, but found support on the 61.8% of the recently developed upward swing from 1.3585 to 1.3840 – at 1.3680. My strategy to sell at 1.3825 was correct – reaching the 100 points target at 1.3725. Upside remains favored, though, as the euro found solid bids and currently trades pips away from $1.38. Today’s most important event is the E.U. meeting – where the E.U. officials are likely to discuss and find a solution to Greece’s debt problems. Above 1.3800, next important barriers are seen at 1.3840/60 and 1.3900/30. I believe that the $1.40 handle remains in cards on a short-term basis. Below 1.3680/00 would cancel the bullish scenario. Current quote is 1.3781 @07:10 GMT

Support: 1.3725/50, 1.3700, 1.3650/80 and 1.3585
Resistance: 1.3800/05, 1.3840/60 and 1.3900/30

Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bullish

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD

Range Forecast
1.3765 / 1.3800

Resistance/Support
R: 1.3813/1.3840/1.3898
S: 1.3758/1.3726/1.3692

Market Awaits Bernanke's Testimony on Future Monetary Policy

The Dollar continued to drop against the Euro yesterday, mainly due to speculations regarding a possible rescue plan for Greece. As a result, crude oil and precious metal rose as well. However, today at 15:00 GMT Fed Chairman Bernanke is expected to deliver a speech, on which he will most likely refer to the Fed's intentions regarding U.S. monetary policy. Harsh volatility is expected to take place during his speech, and traders are advised to be prepared.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The pair is currently being traded near the support line of 1.3777 and after yesterday's rally the daily chart shows signs of a correction in the bearish trend. The MACD histogram has breached above the 0 line, indicating the potential for the price to move higher. This move is supported by the 7-day Relative Strength Indicator that has moved into the oversold region and has since broken above the 30 line. Traders may want to scale back their bullish positions or go long on the pair today to catch the potential correction.

Euro Rallies on Possible Greece Rescue

The Euro rose sharply yesterday against most of the major currencies. The Euro gained over 150 pips against the Dollar, and over 200 pips against the Yen. The Euro also saw a mild rising trend against the Pound.

The Euro was boosted on prospects that the Euro-Zone will aid Greece to restrain their budget crisis. Speculations regarding a possible bail-out plan have ignited demand for higher-yielding assets and strengthened the Euro, particularly against safe-haven assets such as the Dollar and the Yen. Current estimations consider a possibility that Germany will step up with a plan to support the Greek economy. As long as the optimism regarding the Greek economy will continue, higher-yielding assets, such as the Euro and the Pound, are likely to be supported.

As for today, traders are advised to continue looking for further indications regarding the Greek economy, as this seems to have the largest impact on the Euro at the moment. In addition, traders should follow the French Industrial Production report, which is scheduled for 07:45 GMT. This report measures the change in the total value of output produced by French manufacturers. Current expectations are that the French Industrial Production rose by 0.6% during December. If the end result will be similar, it looks to support the Euro.

USD - Dollar Slides as Risk Appetite Grows

The Dollar dropped against most of the major currencies during yesterday's trading session. The Dollar fell sharply vs. the Euro and the Pound, and the EUR/USD pair reached a weekly high of 1.3838.

Two main reasons led to the Dollar's depreciation today. The first reason was ongoing speculations that Greece's economy will be rescued. This has helped to correct some of the Euro's recent losses, and as a result it has weakened the Dollar. In addition, this optimism also boosted risk appetite, turning investors to look for higher yielding assets such as the Euro and the Pound. The second reason was a lower than expected Economic Optimism survey figures. The survey showed that U.S. citizens are pessimistic regarding their personal financial outlook and have less confidence in federal economic policies.

Looking ahead to today, many interesting economic publications are expected from the U.S. On 13:30 GMT the Trade Balance for December will be published. This report measured the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during December. Analysts forecast the U.S. trade deficit has reduced from 36.4B to 35.8B during December. If this will indeed be the actual result, it is likely to strengthen the Dollar. Also today, at 15:00 GMT the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington DC. Bernanke is intended to discuss the U.S. future monetary plans, and the market is likely to have an immediate response to his speech.

Free signal EUR/USD

 

Symbol: 

EURUSD

Forecast High: 

1.3952

Forecast Low: 

1.3562

Entry Buy: 

1.3803

T/P Buy: 

1.3831

T/P Buy: 

1.3878

S/L Buy: 

1.3753

 

EUR/USD - Daily technical outlook

Trading strategy: holding yesterday’s short at 1.3825 with stop at breakeven, objective at 1.3725.
The euro recovered up to 1.3840 session’s high yesterday due to news of Eurozone deciding to aid Greece. The rally was short-lived as the news turned out to be unfounded. One gets to realize how sensitive the market is. However, the rally to 1.3840 fulfilled my expectations and my strategy’s short at 1.3825 got triggered, being a good trade which reached 90 points profit a bit earlier today, but still not reaching the 100 points target. Despite intra-day charts being slightly bearish, I think that the EUR holds gains just fine and the decline from 1.3840 could have been larger, potentially bringing Monday’s trading region back in focus. As the pair maintains its bid tone above 1.3750 – more upside action is likely, retesting yesterday’s top and 1.3900/30 eventually. Short-term sentiment is bearish and a change of current bearish structure would occur only on a sustained breach above 1.3900. Current quote is 1.3777 @07:20 GMT

Support: 1.3725/50, 1.3700, 1.3650 and 1.3585
Resistance: 1.3800/05, 1.3840/60 and 1.3900/30

Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – slightly bearish

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD

Range Forecast
1.3750 / 1.3785

Resistance/Support
R: 1.3808/1.3840/1.3852
S: 1.3742/1.3718/1.3691

EUR/USD Free Forex Signal

Currency Pair:

EURUSD

Forecast High:

1.3754

Forecast Low:

1.3563

Entry Buy:

1.3718

T/P Buy:

1.3742

S/L Buy:

1.3668