Thursday, February 11, 2010

EUR/USD - Daily technical outlook

Trading strategy: stand aside

Yesterday’s trading sessions have been mixed – euro falling after a failed attempt to breach above 1.3800, but found support on the 61.8% of the recently developed upward swing from 1.3585 to 1.3840 – at 1.3680. My strategy to sell at 1.3825 was correct – reaching the 100 points target at 1.3725. Upside remains favored, though, as the euro found solid bids and currently trades pips away from $1.38. Today’s most important event is the E.U. meeting – where the E.U. officials are likely to discuss and find a solution to Greece’s debt problems. Above 1.3800, next important barriers are seen at 1.3840/60 and 1.3900/30. I believe that the $1.40 handle remains in cards on a short-term basis. Below 1.3680/00 would cancel the bullish scenario. Current quote is 1.3781 @07:10 GMT

Support: 1.3725/50, 1.3700, 1.3650/80 and 1.3585
Resistance: 1.3800/05, 1.3840/60 and 1.3900/30

Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bullish

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